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Strong position for the USD
10 April 2014

Last night we saw the release of the long awaited Federal reserve minutes and to all the surprise of many traders and analysts the data shed little light on the on-going US monetary policy, but it did put into perspective the pace of any interest rate increase would likely be slower then previously expected. The 16 members of the FR have been pushing the ideology that the US bond buying scheme would take a slump in Q2 of 2014, but now the likely outcome is the focus should not be on policies but the overall recovery of the economy itself before we could see any hike in interest rates. Yellen has previously indicted that the rates would remain low up to six months after the end of the bond-buying programme.

The silence of the Wolves of Wall Street would not hamper any further concerns. The USD weakening overnight since the interest rates would remain a key factor into a more expensive US Dollar. Indications of lower interest rates for long help the dollar hold its current position, which inadvertently gave us the best rates for sending US dollars (and pegged currencies such as the UAE Dirham) since November 2009.

In a constant reminder of how the currency markets work, AUD became that extra bit expensive as overnight unemployment figures came in better then expected. Today we have the BoE’s monthly interest rate decision and QE. No surprises are expected, Euro volatility was expected from the 9am release of the monthly ECB report. 

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