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Currency Market News

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In Out Shake it all about
14 July 2015

It was announced, at the weekend, that Greece had been granted a third multi-billion bailout fund from the IMF by the Troika. This scenario is, however, conditional on whether Greece passes the agreed reforms by Wednesday. It terms of the currency markets, Sterling made gains against the Euro by climbing over a cent-and-a-half taking it back to nearing the highest levels we have seen this year. If the reforms are confirmed after Wednesday we may see the euro gain back much of the strength it has lost over the past week, so if you have a requirement for buying Euros, now may be the time to buy unless you are prepared to gamble your money.

Elsewhere this week, we have a significant set of data releases each day with the most relevant coming in the form of German CPI on Tuesday morning followed closely by a raft of UK data with CPI, RPI and PPI all being disclosed; depending on the results we could see some market movement, although under the backdrop of the potential Grexit the rate change will either be somewhat nullified or dramatically enhanced. Later in the day we have ZEW economic sentiment surveys for Germany and the Euro-zone followed by the inflation report hearings in the UK and the latest sound-bites from BoE governor Mark Carney, who will no doubt make the markets “twitch” as is what usually happens when an economic leader is speaking. Switching back to the US, we have disclosure of key retail sales figures, giving us an idea as to how many Americans are splashing out and by how much, a good indication of the overall state of their current economy.

On Wednesday we will have a better idea as to how the UK’s current employment situation is with a monthly update on the number of people claiming JSA/ESA, the unemployment rate and average earnings both with and without bonuses. Over the pond, we have latest PPI and industrial production numbers. This is also the day we see the deadline to whether Greece are able to put into motion the accepted terms of their €86B funding. If the anti-austerity Greek people (and parliament members) are unable to make the cuts demanded by the EU (and Germany, who have the most riding on Greece’s future) we could see the beginning of the end for Greece and a significant fall in the strength of the Euro.

The most eagerly anticipated release on Thursday is the Consumer Price Index and trade balance stats from the Europe, giving us an insight into the difference between how much Europe is selling to foreign lands and how much it is buying from abroad. Later on, we see the ECB’s interest rate decision and monetary policy. Draghi’s comments may influence the volatility of the single currency and determine a short term positive or negative trend, potentially lending a hand to, or exacerbating, the Euro's current plight.

Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, later in the day testifies before congress in a type of Q&A so that the US economic situation can be identified, which if positive could further confound the weakness of the Euro.

Rounding off the week, we have more US CPI insights, together with current housing and building trends in the “land of opportunity”.

As always, if you need to sell or buy Euros in this most difficult of times in recent history for the Euro, do stay in touch with your currency broker who will ensure you trade both at the right time and at the best rate.

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