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Currency Market News

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Currency Report 240912
24 September 2012

With autumn arriving in the UK and bringing a month's worth of rain in 24 hours, those of you buying property abroad can take heart from better climates overseas, and more surprisingly some good exchange rates as sterling has taken advantage of events around the globe.

The Pound recovered losses against the Euro towards the end of last week, and while Euro exchange rates are not quite as good as a few weeks ago, given the underlying weakness of the UK economy we see the single currency as good value. This week, we have Chancellor Merkel meeting with ECB President Draghi to (again) discuss the terms of the Greek bailout and use of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). With French PM Aryault yesterday lobbying for Greece to be given more time, plus German finance minister Kampeter supporting the use of the ESM, it would appear that Greece is finding some sympathy in Europe and is set to remain in the Euro with a bailout to go ahead. We would expect this to strengthen the Euro in the short to medium term, giving lower rates for sending money to the single currency zone.

German business sentiment this morning however dropped to its lowest level since early 2010, with fears of a recession in Germany growing as demand from troubled Eurozone partners has been dropping. The ESF and Greek bailout, plus ECB bond-buying plans, are not going to produce economic miracles overnight.

The US Dollar remains very cheap too, with the recent addition Quantitative Easing weakening the US currency a few cents against the Pound. This demonstrates how monetary easing can devalue a currency, and given that the Bank of England may follow suit with more QE in the coming months, beware of potentially falling exchange rates.

This week also sees GDP figures released in the UK, USA, Canada and France. GDP is such a significant economic indicator that we usually see exchange rates move if GDP is revised significantly, and this week is no exception.

We are also still seeing extremely good rates for the Pound against the South African Rand, which has weakened significantly with recent mining strikes.

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