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Currency Report 011012
01 October 2012

As we enter the last quarter of 2012, the Eurozone crisis rumbles on and continues to dominate exchange rates around the world.

The constant jostling for political and economic position between Greece, Spain, Germany, and the European bodies of the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Facility is due to culminate shortly in a Greek bailout - assuming targets are met and other influential parties such as France's President Francois Hollande all reach accord on terms. Meanwhile Spanish PM Rajoy is still stalling on whether his country may also need a bailout, all of which leads to uncertainty and volatile exchange rates not only in the Eurozone but worldwide.

For the Pound, last week saw GDP figures revised slightly upwards, which gave us some sterling strength midweek, but the Pound fell away towards the end of the week and is still vulnerable to negative data. We have house prices, mortgage approvals and the services and construction industry figures due out this week, and the first Q3 GDP figure comes out on October 25th - will the recession be over, or worsen? Leading up to the 25th, any data which points to a prolonged contraction will surely send sterling lower.

Eurozone unemployment figures this morning were as expected, and retail sales are due out for the single currency zone on Wednesday.

On Thursday we also have interest rate decisions in the UK and Eurozone, and although rates are unlikely to change, the accompanying statement from the ECB is usually influential on Euro rates, while the UK announcement is accompanied by the Quantitative Easing decision - more QE usually leads to a rapidly falling Pound.

In the USA, Thursday evening is the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting where more money was pumped into the US economy, causing the US Dollar to weaken and providing better rates for sending funds in US Dollars or pegged currencies such as UAE Dirhams.

We also have important figures out for the Australian Dollar this week, with the Aussie interest rate decision tomorrow and trade balance on Wednesday.

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