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Currency Market News

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Currency Market update
25 June 2012

Uncertainty still reigns the currency markets, despite the new pro-bailout Greek government and Spanish government support for the banking sector. Moody's, the credit rating agency, last week downgraded 16 banks' debt scores, demonstrating the continued worries about Eurozone debt in particular, which have been keeping the Euro nice and cheap for those of you sending payments in the single currency.

At home, the main news last week was that the Bank of England only narrowly decided not to extend Quantitative Easing earlier this month, by 5 votes to 4. It seems likely, given recent economic data (unemployment held at 8.2% last week) that there may be a further injection of cash into the economy at the next meeting, on July 5th. Usually, QE hurts the Pound, giving lower exchange rates for sending international payments.

The third reading of UK economic output (GDP) in the first quarter is also due out on Thursday this week, and will almost certainly confirm the double-dip recession. Many analysts are not expecting a return to growth in the UK in the second quarter, due to the escalating Euro crisis and slow global growth. Needless to say, the Pound does not usually react well to negative UK growth.

Across in the USA, dollar rates have been fluctuating greatly, as the USD became a 'safe haven' currency and strengthened, only to weaken again as the prospect of more economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve increased last week. We have important US data out on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, so if you have a US Dollar (or pegged currency, such as the UAE Dirham) transfer to make, let us know if you would like to be alerted to any movement in your favour.

Finally for this week on Thursday and Friday the EU summit will look to finalise the austerity terms attached to the Greek bailout, although with the new Greek PM and finance minister unlikely to attend due to illness, it is unclear what will be achieved.

In other currencies, the South African Rand has weakened, giving us South African Rand rates near the best since November for buying ZAR, and the Thai Baht is also at excellent trading levels, while the Indian Rupee rate has posted another record, giving the best INR exchange rate for over 10 years.

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