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Currency Market News

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Currency Market Update April 30th
30 April 2012

Well it seems that a week is a long time for the UK economy - last week we went from the 'green shoots' of lower unemployment and imminent recovery, to the desperation of a double-dip recession. Away from the headlines, the Pound has stayed surprisingly strong. 

Sterling has certainly shown resilience in the face of bad news, but perhaps markets are not too worried by the very small contraction in GDP, which may be revised away in any case later in May, and of course the US and European economies are faring no better than the UK. This was shown last week by American GDP coming in much lower than expected on Friday, and European consumer confidence on Thursday also taking a tumble. These data have kept the Euro and US Dollar weaker, and helped to maintain higher exchange rates for the Pound. 

This week, there is very little important data due out for sterling, but we have the important unemployment releases in Europe and the USA on Wednesday and Friday respectively. If these bring further bad news, we could see windows of opportunity to buy Euros and US Dollars at attractive levels this week, ahead of the long weekend and potential for more bad news from the UK next week. 

Further afield we have Australian interest rates overnight, and New Zealand unemployment on Wednesday night, as well as Canadian GDP this afternoon. Interest rates in the USA and New Zealand last week were both held, in line with expectations. 

Last week set a new 22-month high for Euro rates, and today has seen the best rates for buying USD since August; while rates for sending Thai Baht have also hit their best for 11 months. Don't forget that markets can change direction very quickly, and sometimes it is better not to look a gift horse in the mouth! 


Data Releases This Week 

Monday 30th
0700 - German retail sales
1000 - Eurozone consumer inflation
1330 - US personal imcome & expenditure; Canadian GDP

Tuesday 1st
0530 - Australian interest rate decision
1500 - US construction

Wednesday 2nd
0815 - Swiss retail sales
0855 - German unemployment rate
0930 - UK mortgage approvals
1000 - Eurozone unemployment
2345 - New Zealand unemployment

Thursday 3rd
1000 - Eurozone producer inflation
1245 - Eurozone interest rate decision

Friday 4th
0230 - Australian monetary policy statement
1000 - Eurozone retail sales
1330 - US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate

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